A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story.
And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more favorable to Democrats over the past two months.
Prior to the US Supreme Court ruling that there was no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion, Republicans were doing quite well in special House elections. They were outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by an average of 6 points. This had been a very good sign for the party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Since the high court decision, there have been four special House elections. The results share one thing in common: Democrats did better than Joe Biden in all of them. CONTINUED
Harry Enten, CNN
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