The last few weeks have brought Democrats some good news about the 2022 midterms. There have been better poll numbers and surprising election results in some races, such as this week’s close race in a Minnesota House district that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2020. Democrats still face an uphill battle in November and oddsmakers say they are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, but the numbers raise questions about whether 2022 might defy the early expectations of a Republican wave.
On top of a long list of 2022 issues (from the Dobbs decision … to some improving economic news), there are two larger structural factors to consider. First, is the changing nature of the GOP. And second is the impact of Donald Trump not being on the ballot.
In the last few years, the composition of the nation’s two major political parties has changed, particularly around educational attainment. The GOP is increasingly made up of voters without a college degree, while the reverse is true for the Democrats. The data show a pretty clear pattern. CONTINUED
Dante Chinni, NBC News
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