Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. …
With the overturn of Roe v. Wade and recent mass shootings at Uvalde and Highland Park, this analysis suggests that abortion and crime/gun violence are issues motivating parts of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uncommitted to participating in the midterms. CONTINUED
Ipsos
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