Primary polls can often vary widely, so proceed with caution

Last week, a poll on the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary field showed that conservative commentator Tudor Dixon had vaulted into an 11-point lead in the race. The advantage, which was outside the poll’s margin of error, suggested she was the clear front-runner.

This week, another poll of the race showed Dixon up by four points, well inside the poll’s margin of error in a race the pollster called “a complete toss-up.”

The difference in those polls, which is not easily attributable to any changes in the race, is another example of why polling for primary races, especially for Republicans in 2022, can be exceedingly difficult and why people should be very cautious in reading them. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News


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