… Biden’s net approval sits at minus-16 (a figure obtained by subtracting those who disapprove from those who approve). The previous record-holder for lowest net approval 541 days into the presidency was a gentleman named Donald Trump. His net approval at this point was minus-11. …
Presidential approval is one of the better indicators for how a federal election cycle is going to go. The more popular a president, particularly before a midterm, the less damage his party suffers in House races. Very unpopular presidents have generally overseen larger decimations of their party’s congressional caucuses.
Yet at the moment, the generic congressional ballot — the query in polls asking respondents if they plan to vote for the generic Democrat or Republican in their local House race — shows only a modest advantage for the Republican Party. At this point in the 2018 cycle, when Trump was at minus-11 approval, Democrats had a 7-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s average. Now, Republicans have only a 2-point advantage. CONTINUED
Philip Bump, Washington Post
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