The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade is a historic event, but it will take at least a few weeks, if not longer, to know whether it is an election-changing event.
Arguably the worst time to measure the political impact of an event is while it is still going on. The second worst time would be the immediate aftermath. The best option is to wait for the event to settle, let voters wrestle with it, and give enough time for pollsters to hear from those voters.
Of course there’s an appetite for immediate reaction, so there are already at least two surveys helping shape the early narrative. CONTINUED
Nathan L. Gonzales, Inside Elections
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