While no one knows exactly how bad this year will be for Democrats, every serious analyst recognizes 2022 is unlikely to be good for my party.
Whatever the precise outcome, too many will blithely assume that the 2022 results will yield significant insights into President Biden’s prospects in 2024. History makes clear that 2022 will tell us nothing about the outcome of the next presidential election.
In the eight worst midterms for the party in control of White House since 1938, the party holding executive power lost between 45 and 81 House seats. Two years later, that same party won reelection to the White House in more than half — five of the eight — cases. CONTINUED
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill
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