Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president and the party in charge are performing gradually hardening. Conditions can improve or deteriorate, but the direction, generally speaking, doesn’t reverse. …
It is difficult to see even how a reversal of Roe v. Wade or the gun issue can trump economic concerns in general and inflation in particular this November. Abortion, guns, or both may very well come to haunt Republicans in the future, perhaps 2024 or more likely 2026, but in the near term, nothing is likely to overshadow the economy. CONTINUED
Charlie Cook
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