Key Points
• Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.
• Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.
• Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Competition in U.S. Senate elections, 2012-2020
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