Three-quarters of the way through the midterm election cycle, it doesn’t look like anything will change the ominous forecast for Democrats. And Republicans remain well-positioned to take back Congress this fall.
There’s a difference between historic events and game-changing events (events that change the trajectory of an election cycle). A Supreme Court decision effectively overturning Roe v. Wade would certainly be another historic event. But pause is warranted before assuming such a decision will fundamentally alter the current outlook for the midterms. …
Despite some Democratic optimism earlier in the cycle that time would heal some political wounds, specifically those surrounding COVID-19 and the economy, that just hasn’t been the case. Persistent inflation, high gas prices, supply chain problems, crime, and other issues have built a political ceiling that Biden is having trouble cracking. CONTINUED
Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call
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