Key Points
• The number of “crossover” districts — those won by different parties for president and House — has generally been declining over time.
• Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats.
• Based on the new district lines, and with a few states still outstanding, there are currently 16 incumbents running in districts that their party did not win for president: 11 Republicans in Biden seats and 5 Democrats in Trump seats.
• The Democrats may not hold a single Trump district next year, and the Republicans very well could hold many more Biden-won seats. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crossover House districts as percentage of total districts, 1964-2020
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