Key Points
• Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.
• President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”
• Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is very likely to be smaller than in some past GOP wave years simply because the Democratic majority is already so small.
• The composition of this year’s Senate map gives the Democrats a fighting chance to hold their majority there. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Categorizing midterm results for president’s party, 1946-2018
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