When asked in early 2002 to provide evidence that Saddam Hussein tried to supply weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld replied, “There are known knowns — there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns — that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
The three categories of (un)certainty — known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns — are useful when trying to evaluate an upcoming election.
For example, a “known known” is that historically the party holding the White House fares poorly in midterm elections. We can put the 2020 global health pandemic into the “unknown unknowns” category. But, most of the energy and focus of every election is on the “known unknowns”; things or events that we know are going to happen, but we don’t quite understand the outcome or impact of those events. CONTINUED
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
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