Key Points
• Thanks in large part to state courts ruling against Republican gerrymanders in North Carolina and Ohio and Democrats drawing an aggressive gerrymander of New York, the Democratic position has improved in our running assessment of House redistricting so far. Republicans remain favored to flip the House in 2022.
• The new Democratic gerrymander in New York gives the party a great chance to win 22 of the state’s 26 seats, although they may not realize those ambitions fully in 2022.
• The newly-enacted Republican gerrymander in Tennessee gives the GOP what should be a very easy pickup in November. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack