My friends who are Democrats, particularly those of the more progressive variety, don’t seem to understand how deep they are in the political hole this year—and just how hard it might be to get out of it in 2024, particularly in the Senate.
On a basic level, midterm elections are referenda on the sitting president and, if a president’s party has control of the Senate and the House, on that governing party as a whole. President Biden’s current Gallup job-approval rating of 40 percent is the second-lowest of any president in the era of modern polling at a comparable time, above only Donald Trump’s 36 percent. But consider that Biden’s approval is 9 points worse than Barack Obama’s 49 percent at this point, and 14 points below where Bill Clinton was. Democrats lost six Senate and 64 House seats in Obama’s first midterm in 2010, and gave up eight Senate and 54 seats House seats in Clinton’s first midterm in 1994. CONTINUED
Charlie Cook
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack