Political observers seem to be treating a Republican takeover of the US House next year as an inevitability. And maybe that’s true, but I wanted to apply a bit of simple modeling to it to see if we can get some handle on how likely that is to happen. The quick version is that yeah, a Republican takeover is quite likely. But please bear with me, as there are some important details and caveats here.
To come up with a forecast, I’m using a model that predicts House seats loss for the President’s party using a measure of economic growth — real per capita disposable income. CONTINUED
Seth Masket (U. of Denver), Mischiefs of Faction
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