Democrats are holding onto the US Senate by a thread. The chamber is tied 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties in the Democrats’ favor. Republicans need to pick up only one seat in next year’s midterm elections to gain control of the chamber, and an early look at the 2022 Senate playing field suggests they should be considered favorites.
I designed a model that takes into account experts’ race ratings, the last presidential vote in each state, whether the incumbent is running for reelection, and the generic congressional ballot. I did that for the 2022 cycle and examined how these factors were correlated with Senate election outcomes since 2006. Based on those calculations, the GOP’s odds are roughly 3 in 4 (75%) to pick up one seat for a majority. The most likely outcome is a Republican net gain of two to three seats. CONTINUED
Harry Enten, CNN
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