Key Points
• This Virginia gubernatorial race is one of the most vexing races we can remember.
• Terry McAuliffe (D) retains the advantage of running in a state that is clearly trending Democratic. But Glenn Youngkin (R) has many significant advantages of his own, which may outweigh Virginia’s Democratic lean.
• When assessing what the eventual results tell us about the political environment, one’s analysis shouldn’t change much if the race itself ends up being as close as the bulk of the polls project, no matter which candidate wins.
• The Virginia gubernatorial race, particularly recently, has provided clues for the upcoming midterm, but it does not always predict the future. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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