Can You Be My Bellwether?

Democrats are happy — and rightly so — to have pulled out a decisive win in the recent California recall. Despite earlier signs of a Democratic enthusiasm gap, Democratic voters turned out in big numbers for this off-year election. Even a dip in President Biden’s job approval ratings didn’t have any real impact. The “No” on the recall is currently ahead of “Yes” by 28 points, just two points shy of Biden’s 2020 30-point blowout.

But, as my colleague Jessica Taylor wrote this week, “in a state as deep blue as California, a big win for Democrats doesn’t mean the party’s odds are drastically improved ahead of next year’s midterm elections.”

So, what about some of the other special or off-year elections? Can we mine any of them for clues to 2022? CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter


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