We know that midterm elections are almost inevitably referenda on the incumbent president. One way to think about it is that in November of a president’s second (or sixth) year in office, voters go to the polls looking to vote for or against that president and, not finding the name, simply vote for or against every candidate wearing the same color jersey as that incumbent president. The deeper into a president’s term we get, the more meaningful his job-approval rating becomes, and the greater its predictive value. CONTINUED
Charlie Cook
Recent polls: President Biden
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