A Game of Inches

For the last two years, COVID has upended almost every aspect of our lives. Not since 9/11 has a singular event dominated American life. At the same time, even as Americans gave low marks to then-President Trump for his handling of the pandemic and currently approve of President Biden’s job on this issue, it has done little to shake deeply-held partisan opinions of the two leaders. …

The fact that such a big event does little to change perceptions of a president isn’t just a Trump or post-Trump phenomenon. Big events in the second half of President Obama’s first term, like the killing of Osama bin Laden, had only a marginal impact on the opinions of the president. Once considered the most predictive of a presidential outcome, even the state of the economy has become less salient. …

But, while a president’s handling of major crisis or the economy may not move numbers in big ways like they once did — it matters on the margins. And, in a country this deeply and closely divided, the margins are where majorities in Congress — and who controls the White House — are won and lost. So, let’s take a look at where things stand on other things that could have both a marginal and decisive impact on the outcome of the 2022 elections. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report


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