It’s hard to remember a time when conventional wisdom about the outcome of the midterm elections was this hardened this early in the cycle. Even folks who don’t pay particularly close attention to House elections feel comfortable giving Republicans a significant advantage in winning control of the body next year.
There’s good reason to regard Democrats as the underdogs. History alone suggests an uphill battle. Since the end of the Civil War, the party holding the White House has lost House seats in 36 out of the 39 midterm elections. CONTINUED
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report