Key Points
• National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.
• The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election.
• A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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