Post-Mortem On KFF 2020 Election Polling

In early fall 2020, KFF in collaboration with the Cook Political Report conducted the Sun Belt Voices Project which included interviews with a random sample of 3,479 registered voters in three Sun Belt states (1,298 in Arizona, 1,009 in Florida, and 1,172 in North Carolina). …

Now, more than nine months after we conducted the survey and six months after the 2020 presidential election, we are looking back into the data we collected and matching it with actual voter records from Election Day to better understand the demographics of voters who cast ballots during this election. … In addition, it does a deep dive into better understanding the demographics and views of the new 2020 voters who did not vote in the 2016 election. …

Finally, this analysis examines whether the sampling methodology used in this project can help researchers better understand how the polling field can adapt to reach voters missed by traditional polling methodologies, a problem that contributed to underestimates of President Trump’s vote margins across key states in pre-election polling. CONTINUED

Ashley Kirzinger, Audrey Kearney & Mollyann Brodie, Kaiser Family Foundation


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