Trump didn’t bring White working-class voters to the Republican Party. The data suggest he kept them away.

Republican leaders have been hailing a class realignment of the parties. “We are a working class party now. That’s the future,” tweeted Sen. Josh Hawley on election night 2020. In February, Sen. Rick Scott told audiences at CPAC, “We will not win the future by trying to go back to where the Republican Party used to be. If we do, we will lose the working base that President Trump so animated.” …

Did Trump really bring a wave of White working-class voters over to the Republican camp, reshaping his party and American elections? In a new published study, we looked at survey data on voting behavior going back to the 1980s. The answer is no. In fact, our research shows the [sic] Trump’s term in office stalled a long-term trend of White working-class voters moving to the Republican Party. CONTINUED

Nicholas Carnes (Duke) & Noam Lupu (Vanderbilt), Monkey Cage


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