One of the most intriguing questions going into next year’s Senate races is which party will be playing offense and which will be content to defend. History argues that Democrats will be on defense and Republicans on offense; exposure argues the opposite way, that Republicans will play defense while Democrats look to pick off seats.
Almost everyone uses the post-World War II time frame when comparing midterm elections, but politics has changed a lot during that time. Straight-party voting is much more common, for instance. If we limit our sample to more recent times, exceptions to the rules start to become more common, as when the parties of President Clinton in 1998 and President George W. Bush in 2002 gained seats. CONTINUED
Charlie Cook, National Journal
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