Key Points
• Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive.
• The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop the ballot.
• From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote. CONTINUED
Seth Moskowitz, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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