It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back key battleground states. …
African American voters account for roughly 12 percent of eligible voters nationally, and they account for a substantial share of the vote in six of the seven states Trump carried by 5 points or less in 2016: Florida (15 percent), Georgia (32 percent), Michigan (13 percent), North Carolina (22 percent), Pennsylvania (10 percent) and Wisconsin (6 percent). An NBC News/Cook Political Report analysis of census and election data from these states shows that the decline in African American turnout and Democratic support from 2012 to 2016 was probably enough to tip at least Michigan and Wisconsin — and possibly Florida and Pennsylvania — to Trump. CONT.
David Wasserman, NBC News
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack