Key Points
• National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to one where the Republicans have a very clear edge.
• Kansas remains Likely Republican in our ratings.
• We rank the top dozen Senate seats in order of their likelihood of flipping. Of the 12, 10 are held by Republicans, underscoring the amount of defense that the GOP will need to play in order to hold their majority.
• We have two Senate rating changes, one in favor of each party. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball Senate ratings
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