For months, my view has been that President Trump has roughly 35 percent of the electorate locked up; they will be with him come hell or high water. Another 45 percent will be against him no matter what. That leaves 20 percent up for grabs.
We arrive at these numbers by looking at the results of two different poll questions. First, look at the intensity numbers in those polls that ask the president’s job-approval rating. Strong approvers are a pretty good approximation of Trump’s base, while strong disapprovers comprise the hardcore opposition. Then look at polls that ask the “re-elect” question for the incumbent—whether the respondent would definitely vote to reelect Trump, probably vote for him, probably vote against, or definitely vote against. CONT.
Charlie Cook