… Now the undisputed center of the political universe, Trump is set to kick off his re-election campaign Tuesday at Orlando’s Amway Center having redefined the Republican Party, the tenor of American public discourse and perceptions of the country at home and abroad. He’ll do so with the shadow of a possible high-stakes House impeachment inquiry looming over his shoulder — a prospect that carries peril for him in its potential to publicize special counsel Robert Mueller’s findings in painful fashion and, conversely, one that offers the hope that he can rally new voters to his side in the name of defending his presidency from overzealous opponents.
Because while Trump has formed the most loyal base of supporters in modern history, he has also alienated and mobilized large swaths of the electorate, from liberal city-dwelling Democrats to ex-Republican suburbanites turned off by his crass manner, hard-line positions on social policy and his views of executive power and nationalism that rattle pillars of Western democratic governance. …
Modern history and more recent polling suggest Trump has little margin for error in a nation sharply and bitterly divided in its political loyalties. Like George W. Bush, Trump managed to win a first term while losing the popular vote, and public and private surveys show that he has his work cut out for him if he is to claim victory again. CONT.
Jonathan Allen, NBC News