Notes on the State of the Senate

Republicans have to defend 22 Senate seats this cycle to the Democrats’ 12, yet the GOP remains favored to hold the chamber in large part because so many of the seats they are defending are in states that seem certain to vote Republican for president, and strongly so.

Of the 22 seats that the Republicans are defending, 15 are in states that Donald Trump won by 14 points or more in 2016. The overall Senate balance of power is 53-47, meaning Democrats would need to net, at minimum, three seats to take the majority (the vice president elected in 2020 would break a 50-50 tie).

What follows is a status report on the race for the Senate, divided into five storylines we’re following so far: CONT.

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

2020 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings