Following the “invisible primary” stage of a presidential nomination race is a bit tricky. Things are clearly happening in anticipation of 2020 — candidates, both announced and unannounced, are visiting with donors and activists, giving speeches and interviews and haunting restaurants and coffee shops. But it’s difficult to know what any of it means.
That’s why I’ve been repeatedly interviewing a group of roughly 60 Democratic Party activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Washington, D.C. for the past two years as part of my ongoing book research into how interpretations of the 2016 election outcome inform opinions about the future direction of the party and the choice of nominee in 2020. CONT.
Seth Masket (U. of Denver), FiveThirtyEight