Rudy Giuliani.
I don’t mean to dunk on the guy unnecessarily, but the starting and finishing points of discussions about the reliability of early presidential primary polling comes down to those six syllables: Rudy Giuliani.
A Gallup poll in December 2006, shortly after the midterm elections that year, offered good news for Giuliani: He was tied with Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the Republican field. McCain would seem to be the heir apparent, after giving George W. Bush a run for his money in 2000. But here it was, 2006, and Giuliani was where he wanted to be. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post