… A new Marist College poll finds that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Rick Scott. Two other gold standard polls out this week from the University of North Florida and Quinnipiac University give Nelson an average 3.5 point lead. …
A Scott win would be against what we’d normally expect to happen in a midterm election in which there is a Republican president. In midterm elections since 1982, the senator of the opposition party has won about 96% of the time. The only cases where that didn’t happen were when the president was extremely popular (President Donald Trump has an approval of around 40%) or when the incumbent was suffering from a scandal (Nelson isn’t). CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN