There shouldn’t be much doubt that the Democrats are riding a wave heading into November’s midterm elections.
That was clear well before Conor Lamb’s apparent victory in Pennsylvania last week. There have been nearly 100 special elections over the last year, and at this point there’s so much evidence of Democratic strength that there’s not much more to glean from each additional result.
But the special elections haven’t taught us everything we need to know about the midterms. In particular, there are two big outstanding questions that the special elections can’t answer. Can Democrats sustain their performance in a higher-turnout general election? And will Republican incumbents run ahead of the national party by enough to survive? CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times