… The video and subsequent GOP defections make it all but impossible for Trump to win the White House. Self-identifying Republicans make up about only one-third of the electorate, so as Trump loses GOP support, he’ll need to make up that ground with Democrats or independents. That’s just not likely to happen under the circumstances. …
It’s unclear how Trump’s supporters will react to GOP candidates and vulnerable Republican senators renouncing their support for the party’s presidential nominee. Will they vote for Democratic candidates, skip down-ballot races, or begrudgingly support GOP candidates? Each of those answers has a separate consequence, and we won’t know which scenario is playing out until later in the week.
But if even a small percentage of agitated Trump supporters withhold their support from GOP candidates, it would make a difference. A shift of just 2-5 points in the most critical Senate races would give Democrats control of the chamber and make New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer the majority leader. CONT.
Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call