Is the 2016 presidential election a personality contest? That’s what many observers apparently think — and it’s how many interpreted Monday night’s debate between the two nominees. …
Of course, the “personality contest” narrative isn’t new. Ronald Reagan’s charisma and Bill Clinton’s ability to connect with voters are, in the folklore, key to their electoral success. Because Trump and Clinton’s difficulties seem particularly acute, many assume that voters’ sense of their personalities will decide who reaches the White House.
But that theory is often wrong. In a new paper, I show that over the last 60 years, presidential candidates’ personal attributes have actually become less important to voters and less correlated with election outcomes.
So, what really matters? Policy, group affiliations and ideology. CONT.
Martin Wattenberg (UC Irvine), The Monkey Cage