… Trump has had a reasonably strong couple of days in the polls, and the odds according to our forecast have resumed moving slowly but steadily toward him after having flattened out toward the end of last week. As is often the case, however, it’s hard to attribute causality. …
If you want to make the case that the weekend’s news has moved the polls, there are a couple of them that you might cite prominently. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight