In the more poll-obsessed corners of the internet, we’ve been arguing about Hillary Clinton’s decline in the polls against Donald Trump. Everyone seems to agree that Clinton’s lead is down quite a bit in national polls, to an average of around 3 percentage points from a peak of about 8 points shortly after the Democratic convention. But there’s a debate about how this translates to the state level. …
We’ve gotten a lot more of those polls recently, and they show pretty much just what the national polls do: Clinton’s lead in the states most likely to tip the balance of the election is somewhere around 3 percentage points. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight