Republicans and the Trump campaign — facing severe polling, staff and advertising disadvantages — might be tempted to point to party voter registration trends as a sign of life and evidence of an underrated ground effort. …
Party registration can often be a lagging, rather than leading, indicator. As southern states, Florida and North Carolina are home to large numbers of registered Democrats who have nonetheless already been voting Republican for years. The same is true of many working-class, union Democrats in Pennsylvania and Iowa. So are pro-GOP shifts there part of an ongoing long-term cultural realignment or an emerging Trump tsunami?
Examining the trends in these states under a microscope reveals that what’s happening is more a mix of party switching, natural replacement and removal of inactive Democratic voters from the rolls than a feverish Trump effort to expand the electorate. CONT.
David Wasserman, FiveThirtyEight