… If we look at the net favorability ratings for candidates past and present, it becomes immediately obvious how this year’s crop of candidates are outliers. If we subtract the percentage of people who view the candidates strongly unfavorably from those who view them strongly favorably, we get a net value that we can compare to the results of the elections. There’s a loose correlation; candidates that were viewed more strongly positively on net tended to do better on Election Day.
But notice where the two candidates this year are: In no other contest were both candidates in net-negative territory. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post