As even casual observers of American politics know, contemporary presidential nominating contests begin with the Iowa caucuses, followed by the New Hampshire primary. Less well known are their different roles in determining the eventual winner. Candidates finishing well back in the pack in Iowa have gone on to secure their party’s presidential nomination. By contrast, since the beginning of modern nomination process in 1972, no one finishing lower than second in New Hampshire has ended up as his party’s nominee. The conventional wisdom is that there are three tickets out of New Hampshire. If history is our guide, there are only two. CONT.
William A. Galston, Brookings Institution