This week has seen one of the inevitable freakouts about Hillary Clinton’s campaign. After all, her polling numbers are dropping (to right around the levels they were at the last time she ran for president), and her main rival for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders, is drawing record crowds at his rallies. …
Let’s all take a breath. If you were to take all the declared candidates for president right now and assign them a probability that they will be the 45th president of the United States (multiplying their chances of winning their party’s nomination by their chances of winning the general election should they be nominated), Hillary Clinton would have to be at the top of that list, and Donald Trump would have to be right near the bottom. …
Why is this the case, even though it seems to fly in the face of current polling trends? CONT.
Seth Masket (U. of Denver), The Mischiefs of Faction