Few political observers will be surprised that the correlation between presidential and Senate results has been increasing over the last few presidential election cycles. That is, during a presidential election year, the Senate race in state A has increasingly tended to have a similar outcome to the presidential result in state A. …
This article will explore the relationship between contemporaneous presidential and Senate contests going back to 1916, the first presidential election to take place after the passage of the 17th Amendment, which began the era of universal popular voting for Senate races. It will also serve as a historical review of these notable Senate cycles that helps explain the correlations. CONT.
Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball