In the reporting of public opinion, there are few widely-discussed concepts that are as confusing or misunderstood as “likely voters”. Many poll observers think likely voters are a hard and fast classification with clear definitions; this could not be further from the truth. The reality is the construction of likely voter identification is extremely variable and highly dependent on the individual pollster’s technique and skill. Likely voter classifications are very fluid and have a large impact on polling results, particularly of political “horse-race” questions. CONT.
Chris Jackson, Ipsos Public Affairs