Neil Newhouse had felt the thrill and the agony many times in three decades as a Republican pollster. Nothing matched the hurt of November 2012.
Many Republican analysts failed to foresee the success of the Democrats’ 2012 voter ID and mobilization push as a bruised, less-popular Mr. Obama sought a second national victory. But as Mr. Romney’s pollster, Mr. Newhouse was the most conspicuous among them. …
The factors behind those miscalculations have altered the way Mr. Newhouse gathers and interprets polling data this year. CONT.
John Harwood, New York Times