A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential.
This allows us to build some expectations for what we might expect in the closing days of this election. With more time, we could probably be a bit more precise in our analysis, but the shortened time frame still gives us an opportunity to pluck, at the very least, some rules of thumb out of the data. CONT.
Sean Trende, Sabato’s Crystal Ball