When discussing Hillary Clinton and her perceived position as a “shoe-in” for the Democratic nomination, someone will invariably chime in “yeah, well she looked like a sure thing in 2008 too, and look what happened there.” Even the most fervent supporters of the former Secretary of State are anxious about her prospects, worried that they will once again get their hearts broken. …
One of the bigger dangers in politics is the tendency to over-learn the lesson of a previous campaign. History is indeed instructive, and losing is a very important driver of innovation and introspection. That said, each election cycle is unique. What mattered to voters in one year may be practically irrelevant to them a few years later (think terrorism). CONT.
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report