When the political conventional wisdom is overwhelmingly tilted one way, I find it more important than ever to talk to the outliers. Those people who look up at sunny skies and break out umbrellas. Today, those “outliers” are most likely to be Republicans. Even though their party is poised to hold the House and has a good chance of winning control of the Senate, these Republican umbrella carriers aren’t smiling.
They worry that success in 2014 will mask the real, structural problems that Republicans need to fix before 2016. Namely, that the party doesn’t stand for much more than standing against President Obama. As important, the GOP heads into 2016 with a brand that has been deeply tarnished and not easily repaired. …
Mid-term elections are not necessarily predictors of the presidential year performance. However, the winning party should be able to build on its success, not have to dig out of a hole. Regardless of their success in 2014, Republicans will start out in a hole. CONT.
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report